THE Election Commission is planning to hold simultaneous polls in four states—Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu—and the union territory of Pondicherry where the term of legislative Assemblies expire on June 30.
But a tough battle awaits the Congress in the five states. While it faces anti-incumbency in Kerala and Assam, the party is far from taking West Bengal either. But the coming days shall witness an intense wooing of Muslim votes by the Congress and the CPI (M), as they account for over 23 per cent of Kerala’s population.
The Narendran Commission report, the Iran issue and anti-US propaganda are going to occupy centre-stage in the State. The Congress-led United Democratic Front will claim that it had fulfilled its commitments to the Muslim community by implementing the recommendations of the Narendran Commission report.
The CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front, to counter the Congress claim, is expected to raise the issue of India’s vote against Iran and the anti-US tirade in its effort to win over Muslim votes. Initially, the Left parties had countered the Congress propaganda on the successful implementation of the Naraendran Commission report by pointing our that the ruling UDF was idle over its recommendations for the last four and a half years.
But the Left now feel that the pro-Iran and anti-US stands are better weapons to win over the Muslims than the Narendran Commission report. The CPI (M) had an electoral victory earlier by playing card in the panchayat elections. At that time EMS Namboodiripad had successfully avoided mention of Irag’s invasion of another Muslim country, Kuwait, which was the prime reason for the war.
According to reports, a circular issued by the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee to all grassroots-level workers to visit each home and inform them of the party’s commitment to the minorities by implementing the recommendations of the Narendran Commission Report.
In Tamil Nadu, he Congress faces a strong contender in the AIADMK’s Jayalalithaa. The Congress hopes to get a ride on the DMK.
Pondicherry offers a ray of hope. But even here the fear is that continued infighting—especially among the chief ministerial aspirants, Incumbent N.Rangaswamy, CWC member Vaidyalingam, AICC general secretary V.Narayanswamy and PCC chief P.Shanmugham—may take its toll.
In Assam, the Centre’s decision to initiate confidence-building measures after talks with the ULFA is expected to offset the negative fallout of the IMDT Act on Muslims. The party, however, believes that the Iran vote would not impact the community. The only glimmer of hope is a triangular battle – the AGP-BJP, the UDF and the Congress-led combine—tough no one is willing to wage on whom would gain from the three-way split. In West Bengal, the Trinamool-BJP combine and the Congress-led grouping are expected to divided the anti-Left vote all among themselves.
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